Another Yediyurappa is in the making for BJP

By Bimal Prasad Mohapatra

Senior BJP leader and former Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, a key figure in BJP’s landslide victory in the just concluded assembly election in the state despite incumbency factor, and who is popularly called as mama among his fans, has said, “Sometimes one ends up in vanvas (exile) while waiting for rajtilak (coronation).” “I will not go anywhere. I will live here and die here,” emotional Chouhan said when a couple of women in his constituency Shahganj, he visited recently, shouted “bhaiyya (brother), don’t go anywhere leaving us alone.”

Here, BJP’s top leadership should not ignore the fact that this is kaliyug and Chouhan is not a Ram who could sacrifice his rightful political due in a platter. Even if he sacrifices, there is doubt whether other politicians in BJP could follow the path of Chouhan if similarly sidelined, thus this may bare open scope of rebellion within the party. The latest ‘grieving’ statement Chouhan made notwithstanding his earlier December 5, 2023 statement that I quote, “I have never positioned myself as a contender for the Chief Minister post, and that remains true today as well. As a dedicated party worker, I am committed to carrying out any responsibilities entrusted to me with utmost dedication, capacity, and honesty. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is our leader, and it has always been a source of pride and joy to collaborate with him.”

After the latest five assembly election results were declared, selection of BJP CMs in three states where the party won was delayed for several days, certainly for backdoor manipulations.. And the CM selection process started with Chhattisgarh where former CM Dr. Raman Singh, who was responsible for BJP’s measurable loss in 2018 election but played a big role this time in getting party back to power in 2023, asked to propose his former ministerial colleague, a tribal, Vishnu Deo Sai name for CM while accepting for himself assembly Speaker post. A day after, in Bhopal, Chouhan asked to propose the name of Mohan Yadav for CM while for himself there was none though he is fully active at the age of 64 unlike former Karnataka CM B. S. Yediyurappa, former Lok Sabha speaker Sumitra Mahajan, etc. who were literary asked to retire as they reached the age of 75.

Initially this author believed the smooth replacement of Chouhan was done to send a strong message to adamant Vijaya Raje Scindia, a big burden for the cadre-based and disciplined party that BJP is, and she was responsible for party’s defeat in Rajasthan in 2018 and not played big-role in 2023 assembly election. So far as to neutralize Scindia is concerned, the decisions of party central leadership for Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh are justified.

But keeping mama idle post a big win and during prime time of his political career may boomerang like what was seen in Karnataka assembly election 2023. What Yediyurappa is in Karnataka, Chouhan is in MP. Both are grassroot leaders in their own rights. Yediyurappa built the party cadre base in Karnataka, the only state among five major states in south India, despite north-south divide over several issues, and Chouhan save the party post-Uma Bharati imbroglio and got the party successes in both Parliamentary and Assembly elections for decade despite opposition unpleasant onslaughts on his government till Narendra Modi era started in 2014. Chouhan cannot be politically equated with Sumitra Mahajan, Najma Heptulla, Venkaiah Naidu and Yashwant Sinha, who were heavily dependent on party and its central leadership for their wins in their respective constituencies, and post-GE2014, when L. K. Advani was sidelined, he was very old as well as had lost the confidence of Sangh, the party’s ideological mentor post-his desperate ‘Jinnah was secular’ statement in Karachi.

In the 2023 assembly election in Karnataka, BJP retained its 2018 vote share but fail to gain from Janata Dal (Secular) loss which went to Congress enabling the party to win the election. Replacing experienced and acknowledged political administer Yediyurappa, after two years of his tenure, under whose leadership BJP won majority of MLAs in 2018 election, with mild S. R. Bommai, who migrated to BJP from Jannata Dal (U) in 2008, on the age ground was a political blunder. Later late recognition of Yediyurappa’s importance and attempt to bring back Yediyurappa to state political centre-stage did not help. Now Karnataka loss of BJP facilitated divisive forces to promote the north-south divide, and to a great extent responsible for Congress big win in neighbouring Telengana. On the eve of crucial GE2024, if Chouhan shillyshally, has the party central leadership plan B?

Another issue that hangs around in political circle is: What is there when PM Modi reaches the age of 75 after two years? People still remember Yashwant Sinha’s statement in 2015 “All above 75 in BJP declared brain dead by PM”, and late Arun Jaitley’s counter statement “Job applicant at 80.” Mr. Sinha may have spoiled his image hobnobbing with some discredit political personalities post-GE2014, yet he is counted as one of the India’s best finance managers as Finance Minister in short-lived Chandra Sekhar government in earlier 1990s when he rescued the country’s economy from imminent bankruptcy and in Atal Bihari Vajpayee government from 1998 to 2002 when the country’s economic reforms initiated by P. V. Narasinha Rao government was implemented vigorously and country’s economic growth got the right momentum.

Here one should not forget that Indians by and large vote not for all round development, country’s international recognition, and national security; but for religion, freebies, caste, region, language, etc. And another mindboggling aspect is: In India, maximum voting take place in backward regions than in developed and literate regions. In the given situation, any discontent within the present ruling party having negative impact on winnability of it in the general elections over next few decades may facilitate return of corrupt political dynasties to power. Remember India cannot afford inglorious UPA era CWG kind scam in 2036 Olympic, the country is about to bid; cannot afford the statement from country’s defence minister “undeveloped border is safer than developed border”, questioning the authenticity of Balakot air strike and branding of Army Chief with verbatim “sadak ka goonda”. Disgruntled Vijaya Raje Scindia and Yashwant Sinha should not get opportunity to join hands with Chouhan and Yediyurappa, and finally, landing on the laps of corrupt dynasties like Jharkhand’s first BJP CM Babulal Marandi decades back. Of course, Babulal recently returned to BJP.

(Author is Sr. Research Fellow at DRaS & Asst. Prof. (Management Studies) in Trident Academy of Technology, Bhubaneswar. The views expressed are personal.)