Dr. Duggaraju Srinivasa Rao
Hardly three months left for the notification of assembly elections in Tamil Nadu but the political alliances are yet to show urgency for collective campaign strategy, with still changes occurring in the composition of the alliance partners on daily basis, the unpredictability has set in. Last time when the state assembly went for voting it was DMK, Congress, Left parties and some splinter groupings which formed the UPA. This time it is I.N.D.I.A avatar of the national politics. In the last five years the Dravidian ideology, the core of Tamil politics has splintered with many ‘kazhagams’, taking shape, the latest being the Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) started by the cine hero turned politician Vijay, making the Tamil political arena a crowded one.
Tamil politics are peculiar and anyone worth some recognition ventures to start a new sub-regional party, but every party claims to be the real inheritor and true representative of the Dravidian culture and Tamil language heritage. Another commonality among the Tamil parties being that they are all primarily family centric parties with designated inheritor being number two in the party and running of parties as a family businesses. DMK, the model for Tamil politics, is run by Karunanidhi clan, now into third generation. PMK, Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), an off shoot of DMK and now fragmenting, as founder Dr S Ramadas and his son Anbumani got estranged. Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) founded by actor Vijayakanth, one time main opposition in the assembly, is now run by late actor’s wife Premalatha. AIADMK founded by actor turned politician MGR got first into the hands of his wife Janaki and then on his demise to the true inheritor of MGR legacy Jayalalithaa and currently experiencing splitting on the leadership issue between K. Palaniswamy (KPS) and O. Panneerselvam (OPS) with many leader of those splinter groups opting either the DMK or TVK.
The AIADMK, the main rival to ruling DMK is in a dilemma to associate with BJP but the political compulsion and the arm twisting by the BJP firmed up an alliance even at the expense of changing its state president Annamalai. The IPS officer turned BJP politician Annamalai was for lonely fight against the DMK basing on the Hindutva ideology as he felt that Hindutva has caught up the imagination of the Tamil public through his walkathon across the state few months earlier. The top leaders of BJP at Delhi is not confident of Annamalai line, followed their tested formula of getting a footing in a state through an alliance with a local party and then firming up after sometime, sometimes at the expense of that regional party, which gave the space initially. BJP won just 4 seats in the last assembly elections and now wish to secure 20-30 seats and share power with AIADMK. Certainly a tall order.
DMK’s worrying point being BJP roping in Vijay into its fold along with AIADMK to make it a formidable combination. However it is Congress which is making DMK jittery with its move of talks with Vijay while negotiating seat sharing formula with DMK. Tamil Nadu CM and DMK chief expectantly got angered at the news of Rahul Gandhi’s close confident man in the party Praveen Chakravarthy, who also heads the Professionals wing and Data Analytics department of the party, meeting TVK Chief Vijay, that to barely 48 hours after Congress poll panel delegation led by TNCC in-charge Girish Chodankar met Tamil Nadu CM and DMK Chief M.K. Stalin for preliminary seat sharing for the coming elections. This meeting with Vijay by Congress started speculations on the changing equations between DMK and Congress. Stalin camp suspect that, by meeting Vijay, Congress is planning to arm twist them to get a place in the Tamil Nadu cabinet. Over the last many decades the Dravidian parties, both DMK and AIADMK avoided a place to any national party representation in the Tamil Nadu cabinet. That is Dravidian way of keeping national parties at bay, thus making them to remain distant two in Tamil Nadu politics. Congress leaders out of power in the state for almost six decades are eager to have the ministerial comforts and also power.
The latest development resulted in a verbal war in I.N.D.I.A camp. One group in DMK demands a public explanation on the motive of Congress as they consider that Congress leader Rahul Gandhi leadership is a drag on regional aspirations of their party. They want to take congress general secretary Manickam Tagore retort of right to have their own strategy and not binding by the dictates of alliance partners as an advantage to disassociate with Congress. This group is young in age and mostly followers of Dayanidhi Stalin, while CM Stalin wants continuation of alliance with Congress as they see a situation where Congress heading the coalition government at Delhi after 2029 elections. This is a familiar kind of test fight before blinking and retreating on both sides. The seed of suspicion is sowed into Congress-DMK alliance and it is difficult, at this time, to predict the turn it will take.
Those who follow Tamil politics compare the current political scenario with that of 1989, when there was no alliances but each party tested their own fate independently. At that time Congress went alone, two factions of AIADMK, one lead by MGR wife Janaki and the other by Jayalalitha contested separately and Sivaji Ganesan, then popular Tamil star, was in the field through his just born Tamizhaga Munnetra Munnani (TMM). That three way split benefited the DMK in 1989. But this time the result may not be the same for DMK, though the political splitting is similar as cine hero Vijay is much stronger than Sivaji Ganesan and DMK is not in power then. This time around DMK is experiencing huge anti-incumbency and politics has changed at Delhi. Then in 1989, it is was a shaky coalition at the centre and now it is firm, appealing Narendra Modi led NDA at Delhi for the last 11 years.
Tamil voter is having tough time to decide on the party to vote as he is offered many choices in the absence of firm alliance at this stage. Things pay take a firmer shape after Tamil people complete their traditional Pongal celebration and native bull fights and then into political fights of their choice.
(Author is retired professor. Views expressed are personal.)
