Dr Duggaraju Srinivasa Rao
There are many issues troubling the nation on which people have to respond through the vote, however for Karnataka which is going the poll, the first state after the Hindenburg report, opposition’s united fight for JPC on that issue, is not bothered about that issue and also that state specific issue of political turn coats dominating the electoral field, but are focussed on the caste equations and related ego satisfactions. Because of that the Karnataka results, which will be out on May 13, may not bring any new surpsises, will repeat the history of ‘hung assembly’.
Karnataka is important for both the national parties BJP and Congress. A victory here means the retention of power in its Sothern gateway, adding to the confidence of capturing another Deccan state, Telangana. A victory in Karnataka will also boost the BJP cadre to take on Congress in the states of Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh where that party is in power. On the other hand for Congress the victory in Karnataka will give its oft repeated claim of leadership of non-BJP front. However there is third party, JDS, to spoil the outcome for the national parties.
In the last two election of 2013, 2018 the JDS maintained a healthy 20% vote share and 37-40 seats and Congress showed a committed vote of 37-38 % of votes. In 2013 with 36.6% vote share Congress could win 122 seats, clear majority on their own while BJP won only 40 seats and almost 20% vote share in 2013. The change in 2018 election was BJP mustering 36.2% votes and won 104 seats whereas despite improving 1.4% vote share the Congress won only 78 seats. The contest in the last two elections it was triangular, but this time it is multi-polar election with AAP, NCP, Muslim outfits MIM, PDPI entering the fray. While the NCP has some influence in the Mumbai-Karnataka area, AAP in the urban centres like Bangalore, Mangalore, Udipi and MIM and PDPI restricted to coastal Karnataka. JDS is largely a old Mysore area party. With no electoral understanding with any smaller outfits, the national parties BJP and Congress are fighting head focussing on the respective strongholds and this is the reason why the observers predict hung assembly despite very early surveys give Congress an edge. One survey predicted majority for Congress while all others conclude a neck to neck contest for BJP and Congress.
Congress and BJP are hopeful of forming the government on their own and each one of them have their own arguments. Congress think that Karnataka people are fed up with the corruption of the BJP government where it is tagged as the “40% commission government”. Their expectation of shifting of voters to their camp for better governance. The BJP on the other hand think that voters are firmly with them by quoting the 51.75% vote and 25 seats given to them in 2019 LokSabha elections. From 2018 assembly election vote share of 36.2 % to 2019 vote share of 51.75% the gain for BJP is huge. So they are confident of winning the assembly election with at least 45% vote share.
There are quite a few common things for Karnataka which are not changing with time. They are caste and corruption. It is money based politics which the state is witnessing since 1980s. The hugely popular Rama Krishna Hegde of Janata Party could not escape the corruption charges then. That tradition continues irrespective of party tag. Money politics are resulting in the fractured verdict and fractured verdict is increasing the corruption as independents and other fence setters are bought at very high price for the formation of the government by any party. BJP suffered as it was not given majority on its own by the voters and it resorted to ‘operation lotus’, an expensive scheme. GaliJanardhana Reddy saga is well known. The Congress despite getting majority in 2013 failed to control corruption as at that time party high command in Delhi was solely dependent on Karnataka for party funding.
The other common feature for Congress and BJP is the high intensity internal dissensions. Even before one blinks the parties are changing the parties. No ideological association only personal ambitions are given priority. The defections from one party to other has gathered pace with the ticket distribution and those denied tickets are going to new part with the assurance of seat and constituency. Each defector, irrespective of the parties, is a influential leader in that constituency.It is this ‘defective influence’ which is making the calculations of party chiefs’ disarray. The top leaders tussle is also the common thing to BJP and Congress. The former CM Sidhramaiah, the popular BC leader, and Sivakumar are at loggerheads to neutralise the other. Sivakumar already dragged the name of SC leader and AICC President MallikarjunKharge’s name in to CM post. In BJP camp Yediyurappa is indispensable as it was he who brought BJP to power in Karnataka through the Lingayat cast votes. The Vokkaliga, other prominent caste group, is being wooed through the tinkered reservation policy to buttress the vote bank. The formula of attracting some BC castes and SC castes which are unhappy with a particular caste among them dominating in politics, education and jobs is the formula of BJP and it has succeeded in the North India and that formula is repeated now in Karnataka. The congress suffers because of its traditional vote banks are collapsing. The BSP assertion drew away the SC community from them partially and soft-Hindutva adapted by Rahul Gandhi Congress has pushed the Muslim votes towards SDPI. The Muslims form monolithic 13% vote till now and that cohesion is no more. The very fact a SDPI candidate in coastal Karnataka complaining to the election commission against the Congress candidate campaigning in Mosques and Madrassas shows the assertion of Muslims and their opposition to Congress.
If it is hung, as predicted, it is the JDS winners who will be in demand. With a 30 member strength it is always Kumaraswamy who will be in demand for government formation with the offer of CMs post. The last time around he was unseated his Congress partnered government by BJP and this time if the same scene is repeated in ministry making the same scene of collapse be re-enacted by BJP and the patriarch of JDS and former Prime Minister DeveGowda knows that. However he has to first set his family internal struggle in order before taking political advantage in post result.As the hung assembly view is gathering traction, the negotiations are reportedly under way between prospective winners and BJP and Congress in a competitive way. Better the offer from the national party ready to jump is what regional parties are planning. The latest survey done on 10th April projecting 98 seats to Congress and 92 to BJP with 27 seats to JDS the pricing game is on history of uncertain politics of Karnataka is also on.
(The views expressed are personal)