Dr. Duggaraju Srinivasa Rao
Congress was hit badly in Bihar election with less than 9% vote and only 6 seats sank to the bottom of the political pit and unfortunately it has pulled down the RJD too and this sounded danger bells in the I.N.D.I.A camp which was assiduously built before 2024 Lok Sabha elections. With the way some of the regional parties are reacting post Bihar results it is almost certain that the opposition coalition survival is doubtful. This is confirmed by the statements emanating from the members of I.N.D.I.A block themselves.
J&K Chief Minister Omar Abdullah all of a sudden dropped the political truth bomb on Congress by saying the I.N.D.I.A block is on “life support” and confirmed the infighting with in the alliance. He indirectly questioned the strength or political resolve of the alliance in comparison with the rival BJP. Abdulla, representing the Muslim political party from a special seat is sending a message to the voters of his religion to search for an alternative to vote ignoring the Congress claim of pro-minority posture. The RJD and its leader Yasaswi Yadav are sulking in Patna for aligning with Congress in just concluded Bihar assembly elections as it cost them heavily in terms of seats. RJD which was number one in terms of seats in 2020 election became number three in 2025 elections. Yasaswi Yadav regrets for following the Congress elders designed strategy of keeping AIMIM away from the alliance with the hope of getting more number seats to contest. RJD foolishly conceded the Congress demand for 65 seats, though that party has no organizational strength in the state. Reality is RJD in tatters with family feuds into the open and Nitish Kumar tactically eliminating the RJD caste base.
RJD cadres in Bihar is maintaining distance from Congress and is pressurizing the leaders to abandon I.N.D.I.A ship. That mood of negativity with Congress now seems to have been extended to Samajwadi Party (SP) cadre in Uttar Pradesh. This is evident during the winter session of parliament where SP stayed away the Congress lead agitation against Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voters on the second day of the session. The widening gap between Congress and SP is visible in corridors of parliament. The MPs from both sides are feeling suspicious of others moves and blaming others for the widening gap between these two parties. Some of the MPs from SP party are vocally and visibly against alliance with the Congress in the upcoming local body elections. The gap is certain to extend resulting in the ‘divorce’ by the time of 2027 assembly elections. The second rung SP leaders are not happy as they have to forgo their seats to accommodate Congress candidates. Despite their sacrifice of the seats, the SP leaders feel that Congress vote is not getting transferred to SP candidates in the election. For a party which has no influence beyond Amethi and Raibareli the SP leaders feel that they are giving new life in the state and ultimately the revival of Congress in Uttar Pradesh will hit their party only.
In Bengal Mamata Banerjee has already made up its mind not to associate with Congress in the coming elections as such an alliance is drag on TMC. When the Congress is dead organisationally which is evident in the protest against the SIR, the alliance with that party is not in the interest of TMC is the firm opinion. Stemming from the confidence of winning alone TMC may sound right in moving out of I.N.D.I.A camp. The AAP which is already out of I.N.D.I.A is slowly creeping into the Congress strong holds in Gujarat. Voters of that are now seeing AAP as main opposition and new hope instead of Congress.
DMK is the only allay which is still carrying alliance with Congress and hope to sustain I.N.D.I.A. As the cine hero turned political party founder Vijay makes some progress in attracting Christian voters in the southern coastal districts which were traditionally DMK votes the second thoughts are sure to crop up to snap ties with I.N.D.I.A for the assembly but carrying the alliance for Lok Sabha elections. With regional parties shrinking in their influence and BJP making aggressive moves to get regional parties out of electoral sphere, the I.N.D.I.A alliance stability suspicious which means that opposition alliance is back to the drawing board days of 2024.
