Why India–China Cooperation Changes the Game for Nepal and Pakistan

SK Nag

South Asia’s geopolitics is never static. Over the past few years, the United States has recalibrated its Indo-Pacific strategy to manage China’s rise and strengthen India’s role as a stabilizing power. While Washington continues to deepen its strategic partnership with New Delhi, it also acknowledges that peace and progress in Asia are impossible without India and China engaging constructively. This quiet encouragement for India–China cooperation is reshaping the region’s dynamics—and not everyone is comfortable with it.

For Nepal and Pakistan, two countries whose foreign policies often thrive on exploiting India–China divergences, the prospect of New Delhi and Beijing working closer together under U.S. nudging creates unease. Their discomfort highlights how smaller nations sometimes depend less on their own strengths and more on the rivalries of others.

A Broader Strategic Realignment

The U.S. long treated China as a partner to counterbalance Soviet power in the 1970s. Today, Washington views Beijing as its primary competitor. In response, India’s stature has grown as the world’s largest democracy, fastest-growing major economy, and a key Indo-Pacific player. But global challenges like climate change, trade stability, and supply chain resilience cannot be managed by isolating China. Hence, America’s approach includes creating space where India and China can find common ground, despite their differences.

Implications for Nepal

For Nepal, nestled between two giants, rivalry has been a tool of survival. Successive governments in Kathmandu have tried to maximize aid, investments, and diplomatic concessions by playing the “India versus China” card. If Delhi and Beijing begin to coordinate more on regional connectivity or trade, Nepal loses the luxury of triangulation. Instead of extracting short-term gains by shifting sides, Kathmandu will need to commit to deeper reforms and cooperation with both neighbors. In the long run, this could be positive for Nepal’s development, but in the short term it limits the political flexibility its leaders have relied on.

Implications for Pakistan

Pakistan’s anxiety is even sharper. Its “all-weather friendship” with China has been the bedrock of its foreign policy and a counterbalance against India. The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) symbolized this closeness. Yet, if Beijing recalibrates toward a more stable relationship with New Delhi, Pakistan risks marginalization. Its capacity to leverage China against India weakens, and its reliance on a single partner becomes more glaring. For Islamabad, this is not just a diplomatic challenge but a strategic setback. It would need to diversify its partnerships and perhaps even rethink its confrontational stance toward India.

Why India–China Engagement Matters

For India, engaging China does not mean ignoring disputes, whether on the border or trade imbalances. But maintaining dialogue, supported by U.S. acknowledgment, offers a pathway to reduce tensions and focus on growth. For China too, stabilizing ties with India helps secure its western periphery while it manages competition with the U.S. in the Pacific. A cooperative framework, however limited, benefits both nations by ensuring that South Asia is not perpetually held hostage to smaller states’ opportunistic diplomacy.

The Road Ahead

The unease in Kathmandu and Islamabad is natural. But instead of fearing India–China cooperation, both countries would gain more by integrating into regional projects on connectivity, energy, and trade. A South Asia where India and China are on speaking terms is ultimately more stable and prosperous than one defined by endless rivalry.

(Author is Political & Economic Analyst. The views expressed are personal opinion of the author.)