Tough road ahead for NDA in Bihar

As Bihar gears up for its assembly elections later this year, one thing is becoming increasingly evident — seat sharing within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will be anything but smooth. Despite the public display of unity and mutual admiration, particularly between JDU’s Nitish Kumar and LJP (Ram Vilas) chief Chirag Paswan, the cracks beneath the surface are hard to ignore.

Chirag Paswan, once a thorn in JDU’s side, is now a vocal supporter of Nitish Kumar’s leadership. His praise for the Chief Minister and open endorsement of him as the NDA’s face in the elections marks a stark contrast from 2020, when he ran his party separately and targeted Nitish. That rebellion significantly damaged JDU’s prospects, despite LJP winning only one seat. The undivided LJP in 2020 got more votes than JDU on 32 out of 38 contested seats, showing its capacity to influence outcomes even without major victories.

Now, with Chirag’s LJP (Ram Vilas) back in the NDA fold and freshly emboldened by its full participation in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the party is expected to stake aggressive claims on assembly seats — especially those where it had a strong vote share in 2020. This will place JDU in a difficult position. For the ruling party in Bihar, reliving the past electoral damage caused by LJP is not an attractive prospect.

JDU insiders suggest that accommodating Chirag’s demands may disrupt the internal balance of the NDA. It’s not just a question of arithmetic but also of trust and strategic alignment. With 243 assembly seats in Bihar and 38 contentious ones, negotiations could become a tug-of-war. LJP believes it deserves more seats based on past performances. JDU, burned once, is now treading carefully.

The BJP, the senior partner at the national level, will likely have to play mediator, but even it must walk a tightrope. While it needs Chirag Paswan’s support to secure votes, it also cannot afford to alienate Nitish Kumar, whose political stability is key to NDA’s performance in Bihar.

PM Modi’s recent two-day visit to Bihar signals the importance the alliance places on the state. Yet, campaign optics and unity rallies will mean little unless seat-sharing disagreements are resolved with maturity and foresight. If not, history may repeat itself — and this time, the cost could be higher.

In a state where alliances often determine victory, the NDA needs more than smiles and photo-ops. It needs genuine consensus and that won’t be easy.