By Dev Chandrasekhar
The unexpected victory of Donald Trump in the 2024 US Presidential election has set the stage for a significant shift in US-India relations. While Trump’s sharp words have primarily targeted China, he also given enough indications he will play hardball with India on trade, military issues, and, perhaps, all issues involving Elon Musk. How India negotiates the second Trump presidency will have far-reaching implications for India’s pursuits of data, military, and energy sovereignty.
Data Sovereignty: Renewed Tensions and Technological Nationalism
India’s implementation of the Digital Personal Data Protection Act in 2023 and its continued push for data localization are likely to face pressure under Trump’s second term. Trump’s “America First” ideology, now reinforced by his electoral mandate, could lead to increased pressure on India to relax data localization requirements for US tech companies, potential threats of retaliatory measures, and a rollback of collaborative initiatives in favor of more unilateral approaches by the Trump administration towards technological development.
This imminent prospect should catalyze India’s efforts towards developing indigenous alternatives to US tech platforms. The push towards technological self-reliance might lead India to align more closely with other nations pursuing similar goals, creating a new global tech dynamic. The challenge for India will be to balance its desire for data sovereignty with the need to maintain productive relationships with global tech leaders in the US.
Military Sovereignty: Transactional Defense Ties
Trump’s return is likely to usher in a more transactional approach to defense relationships. While the strategic imperative of countering China remains a shared concern, the nature of US-India military cooperation might undergo significant changes. India may face increased pressure to purchase more US military hardware, potentially at the expense of its indigenous defense production goals as well as India’s strategic need to insist on technology transfers. This shift could create tension between India’s desire for strategic autonomy and the need to maintain strong ties with the US.
Furthermore, there might be a re-evaluation of intelligence-sharing agreements and joint military exercises, with the US doubling down on its immediate interests. India may need to navigate carefully between maintaining its strategic autonomy and appeasing a more demanding US administration. This delicate balancing act could lead to a diversification of defense partnerships, with India potentially strengthening ties with countries like France, Japan, Korea, and even Russia and other emerging military powers to offset any perceived over-reliance on the US.
Energy Policy: Fossil Fuels Resurgent
Trump’s well-known skepticism towards climate change action and preference for fossil fuels could significantly impact India’s energy transition plans. A potential US withdrawal from global climate agreements could undermine international efforts, complicating India’s renewable energy financing and technology transfer initiatives. Increased US oil and gas production might temporarily lower global prices, potentially distracting India from its current fast transition away from fossil fuels.
The temporary shift in the global energy framework could force India to reevaluate its energy strategy. The country might need to focus on energy security through diverse sources, including increased domestic fossil fuel production alongside continued renewable energy expansion. The challenge for India will be to maintain its commitment to sustainability and climate goals while ensuring energy security in a potentially less cooperative international environment.
Geopolitical Implications
Trump’s return could reshape global geopolitics in ways that significantly affect India. A more confrontational US stance towards China might initially seem beneficial for India but could also increase regional tensions and force difficult choices. India may find itself caught between its strategic partnership with the US and its need to maintain a stable relationship with its powerful neighbor. This is especially given the recent agreement between PM Narendra Modi and President Xi Jin Ping towards the disengagement of each country’s troops on the India-China LAC.
Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy could strain US relationships with traditional allies, potentially creating openings for India to strengthen its own global partnerships. However, this could also lead to a more fragmented international order, requiring India to navigate more complex diplomatic pathways. The potential for sudden shifts in US policy towards Pakistan or Afghanistan could have direct implications for India’s regional security interests, requiring constant vigilance and adaptability in India’s foreign policy approach.
Navigating the New Reality
As India faces the challenge of adapting to a second Trump presidency, it will need to strike a delicate balance between maintaining its strategic autonomy and engaging effectively on the international stage. This new reality demands a focused approach to safeguard India’s interests while managing an evolving relationship with the United States.
India must prioritize self-reliance initiatives, particularly in technology and defense sectors. Simultaneously, diversifying international partnerships will be crucial to hedge against uncertainty in US relations. India should also maintain its commitment to climate goals and clean energy development, potentially filling any void left by US disengagement from global climate efforts.
Economic resilience will be key to withstanding potential external pressures. India should focus on strengthening its domestic economy, accelerating reforms, and exploring new export markets. Additionally, bolstering Make in India for cybersecurity and digital infrastructure will be essential to protect national interests and data sovereignty in an increasingly digital world.
Engaging the Indian diaspora, particularly the Indian-American community, could play a vital role in maintaining positive US-India relations despite potential policy disagreements at the governmental level. Finally, India must prepare for various geopolitical shifts, developing contingency plans for regional and global scenarios to ensure it can respond effectively to any sudden changes in the international order.
While the core strategic logic of the US-India partnership remains valid, particularly in the context of managing China’s rise, the methods and tone of engagement are likely to shift significantly.
India may find itself needing to assert its interests more firmly on the global stage while carefully managing its relationship with a more demanding and unpredictable United States. This period could ultimately accelerate India’s journey towards greater self-reliance and strategic autonomy, albeit in a more challenging global environment. The coming years will test India’s diplomatic acumen, strategic resolve, and capacity for innovation in an increasingly multipolar and uncertain world.
(The Author is a Senior Fellow at the Centre for Innovation in Public Policy. The views expressed are personal.)
