Dr Duggaraju Srinivasa Rao
Local body elections before the general election is a gamble and the ruling Left Front (LDF) ventured to take that in Kerala and suffered an unexpected defeat in the hands of Congress led United Democratic Front (UDF). That UDF won 4 of 6 municipal corporations, which means it gained 3 corporations from LDF. Similarly it gained 4 more district panchayats finally winning 7 out of 14. Out of the 86 municipalities it won 54. The results in the urban and rural areas the verdict is pro UDF and anti LDF. The shock verdict can’t be wished away by the LDF as the assembly elections are hardly four or five months away. The LDF leadership may site the instance of how they lost 2019 Lok Sabha election badly but won the local body as well as assembly election of 2020 and wish to recover and score hat trick victory in 2026, thus setting an unprecedented record for Kerala.
That the shock was so unbearable for the Left and leadership is in confused how to react. While the leader of LDF Pinarayi Vijayan and the CPM is yet to react the CPI is trying to blame CPM for the defeat of LDF. The CPI holds the handling of Sabarimala gold theft case by the Chief Minister as main reason for the defeat. The accused in the temple theft case was an official handpicked by CM Pinarayi Vijayan, the CPI points out. The message of communists being thieves of God’s property went into the Hindu voter mind and that lead to vote against the LDF feel state CPI secretary Binoy Viswam. Finding it difficult to come to a definitive conclusion for their defeat Binoy Viswam sought the views from the Kerala public, an unusual from a political party, asking the people to write to the CPI either by post or mail their own views on dismal performance of Left parties. Coming from a communist party which boasts of working with the people on daily basis and claims to be close to the people, it is surprising, that it failed to read the public mood.
LDF is in serious trouble as it was under attack on more than one front. Current defeat is the result of anti-incumbency coupled with the changing political dynamics of the Kerala. The Congress led UDF made the voter to believe that Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan is in tacit understanding with the BJP leadership in Delhi as his own family is facing investigation through the central agencies like CBI and ED. Despite its open pro-Muslim statements and actions the Muslim voter believed that Left is moving close to BJP. On the other hand Christians, another influencial minority religious group of Kerala, peeved at the way the Muslim community is pampered by the LDF by supporting the Waqf claims on the Christian church properties.
Christian families are now convinced that their girls are targets of Love Jihadi youth. LDF leaders including the CM Pinarayi Vijayan consistently rejected the Love Jihad in Kerala and argued that it was the pure love between girl and boy beyond religious barriers. The Christian community question of “if it a love then why the Muslim girls are not loving boys outside their own community and there were no reports of Muslim girls eloping with Hindu or Christian boys?” remained unanswered from the Left. This pro-Muslim stand of LDF backfired on them from both the sides, with Muslims going back to Congress and some section of Christians siding with BJP in solidarity with Hindu families, who are the main targeted victims of Love Jihad in Kerala.
The Hindu vote which is normally divided on the caste lines, benefitting both LDF and UDF, apparently welcomed the NDA lead by BJP. Though the NDA remained in distant third position, the BJP has made a big statement by capturing the Tiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation. It ended the CPM’s 45 year rule in the corporation and that is more hurtful for the Left. The LDF and UDF have failed to live up to their common slogan of ‘No entry for BJP into Kerala’ as BJP has extended its footprint in the state as Kerala voter accepted its ideological entry. In the earlier election there was an undeclared cooperation between UDF and LDF to defeat BJP candidates. This time such a cooperation is apparently not there as both LDF and UDF are seriously fought the semi-final before the coming final of assembly election in 2026. In such a scenario the task of BJP lead NDA became quite is to make an impressive show in Kerala.
The reason for LDF loss, in the post-mortem, is attributed to its campaign style which was largely defensive. Instead of projecting its track record on development including its much hyped ‘extreme poverty removal’, the CPM spent much of its campaign on Congress’s association with the Jamaat-e Islam affiliate Welfare party of India and the allegation of sexual misconduct of Congress MLA Rahul as they were overshadowed by the BJP, UDF campaign on temple gold theft issue.
The results have lessons to all the three fronts, as each front gained in other front’s strong holds and lost where they expected to score well. So the voters are watching keenly all the three fronts and gave fair treatment to candidates and their track record. It is not over to any one front including the LDF, as there time to make amends to its campaign style and approach to the voters. But one thing is the bipolar nature of Kerala politics seems to be on the wane with the BJP emerging as a force in both urban and rural areas. The one front which quickly re-strategize and recalibrate to build a new campaign road and voter centric issues will get the better share of votes. Kerala will be a new field for experimentation of BJP and its determination to enter that state in a big way. How best LDF and UDF try to deny the foothold for the third front, NDA, remains to be seen. The next five months are crucial for all the fronts.
(Author is retired professor. Views expressed are personal.)
