Tamil Nadu votes in changed situation

Dr. Duggaraju Srinivasa Rao

Tamil Nadu is going for voting in the very first phase of 2024 Lok Sabha elections. As the intense campaign in the scorching Sun climate came to an end the speculation on the winner are varied. Some see the repeat of 2019 results where the DMK and its allies swept the state while others predict a surprise wins for BJP in at least 5 seats. Whatever may be the final outcome, one factor which received the national attention for the first time is the effort of a national party, BJP, making a spirited attempt to wean away some voters from the Dravidian movement and make its presence felt in the state.

Tamil Nadu elections has never before received the national attention, though that state contributes 39 seats and almost all of them were won by one of the Dravidian parties DMK or AIADMK or their coalition partners all these years. Since coalition politics became the norm at the centre in 1990s the Dravidian parties played an important role in forming the governments in Delhi and consequent power sharing. Since the massive victor to Modi in 2014, the Dravidian parties lost their clout in Delhi.  With the special focus of BJP on Tamil Nadu, the political dynamics have changed from bipolar contest between DMK and AIADMK to triangular contest with BJP leading the third front in that state. This is an unthinkable scenario few years back. However, BJP made a concerted effort to breach the Dravidian parties hold on the Tamil psyche. With Narendra Modi as the PM visiting the state six times in the last five years and trying to bridge the south-north divide by calculated placating of the Tamil language, culture.

Since DMK won the 1967 elections in Tamil Nadu, that state is out of bounds for the national parties as Congress, which ruled that state from 1947 to 1967, willingly became a junior partner in the state politics. Despite the splits in Dravidian parties, the voters have never gave up their language sentiment. Having suffered the image of north Indian party, the BJP under Amit Shah-Modi combination put an extra effort to make the party’s presence in Tamil fort.

Entry of BJP has changed the electoral scene in Tamil Nadu and that is perceptible with the kind of issues the DMK raised in the campaign.  This time around DMK all most gave up language, culture sentiment and took up the cause of CAA, secularism. Caste survey, Chinese intrusion etc.,  which are all non-Tamil issues. There is more than one reason for this changed agenda of ruling DMK. Earlier its main rival was AIADMK, but now its main threat is BJP. Not that BJP is going to win many seats from Tamil Nadu but the DMK don’t want to concede an inch of political space to BJP in its fortress. M.K. Stalin fears that, once a national party gets a foot hold in his state his appeal may gets weakened.

The other reason being the ruling party’s dismal performance on the power sector. The state owned hydropower plants produced little over 3,000 million units in 2023-24, making it the lowest output in seven years. It is 50% drop in hydro-power generation from previous year. The scorching summer heat and the unscheduled power cuts besides the scheduled power cuts of varying hours in different places is making the life of Tamil voters miserable. The much boasted Dravidian model of development of Karunanidhi clan is exposed with this power starving situation. The Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporate Limited (TANGEDCO) is reportedly paying 13,000 crores a year on the interest on loans. During the last four months, the time prior to the electioneering, TANGEDCO has spent almost 4,600 crores on power purchase from the private players.  The power procurement costs for the just concluded financial year is projected to be 65,000 crores. Similar power situation in 2011 summer ended the DMK rule. M.K. Stalin is haunted by 2011 verdict. To divert the mind of voters from the present power shutdowns that DMK played emotive abolition of Sanatana Dharma, non-implementation of CAA, NEET etc  in the campaign, though they are beyond the purview of the Tamil Nadu government.

BJP has now taken over the Tamil pride issue by organising the Tamil Sangam meets in Varanasi, installation of Sengol in the new parliament building, Modi wearing traditional Tamil dress, addressing in Tamil wit the help of AI, repeated visits to the state and road shows in many cities by Modi are all well calculated moves to woo the Tamil voters.

Despite all these efforts the BJP may not win any seat in this election, though the surveys project victory in 5 seats but that party is gaining a foot hold in Tamil Nadu is what local political observers believe. They estimate near 20% vote share for BJP.

The Tamil Nadu has voters who are not aligned with the Dravidian parties. Though they appreciate the Tamil proud they are not happy with DMK or AIADMK way of goernance. They include certain social groups which suffered heavily under the Dravid party rule. Though the Dravidian parties claim they represent the self-respect movement, their track record proves otherwise. In the Dravidian party rule the SC communities are the worst sufferers. The middle castes which formed the Dravidian parties has not shared the power with the SC groups. On the other hand the middle caste pampered by Dravidian parties are perpetrators of harassment of the SC communities. It is those groups which are waiting for a party which can take them into their fold and BJP is attempting to attract them.

BJP found in Annamalai an able speaker, a staunch Hindu, capable of exposing the Dravidian rule with facts and figures and that is the advantage of national party. The current election is sure to establish two facts. The weakening of regional parties in Tamil Nadu and establishment of BJP through a committed vote share. This result will make the Congress to rethink about its relations with DMK and its ideology.

(Author is retired professor. The views expressed are personal. He can be reached at duggarajusrinivasarao@gmail.com)