Intensive fight and unpredictable result in Keralam

Dr Duggaraju Srinivasa Rao

Kerala state has changed its name to Keralam and along with the name the politics of that state also seems to have changed. Till now Kerala had ths history of alternatively opting to one of the alliances of the state, while for the first time the voter is now givengot the opportunity to experiment with the with a third alternative NDA, led by BJP. Though no one is imagining NDA upsetting the established political narrative of Kerala, which is going to polls on the 9^th of this month, the two traditional rival alliances LDF and UDF are worried about the mood of the Malayalam voter’s likely changed preferences. In their worry to stop the drifting of Hindu vote to BJP, both the alliance leaders are tactfully accusing the other camp as a colluder of BJP. How the voter take this changed message and respond will be known on this week, though the final results will be out only on 4^th May.

Both LDF and UDF are in serious fight to finish mode though for different causes. The CPM led LDF is fighting for a hat trick victory, unheard in Keralam political history and Congress led UDF for its own survival and to score a consolation victory amidst a series of defeats in the state elections in the near past. Going by the voting pattern in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and 2025 local body elections the observers predicted a walkover for the Congress led UDF. It is to the credit of CPM, it’s CM Pinarayi Vijayan and other Left parties in the state which recovered the lost ground and could make it a fight worth remembering, though still the scales are tilted away from them. Those two elections reported a huge anti-incumbency, but for that BJP couldn’t have snatched Tiruvananthapuram Corporation from the CPM, which was holding that for over 3 decades. The defeat in the state capital has certainly worried the CPM and started its campaign with some amount of seriousness.

The intensity of fight between those camps can be gauged from the kind of language used and issues being raked up by LDF and UDF leaders. The CPI national general secretary D. Raja called Congress “an ideological bankrupt party” while Rahul Gandhi saying “the Left is on a weakened ideological foundation”. For a change Rahul Gandhi was right when he referred to ideological weakness of Left. To the surprise the Left leaders, both CMP and CPI, surprisingly walked into rival alliance when denied tickets. But what surprised is the CPI and CPI leaders, former MLAs joining the saffron camp lead by BJP, whom till recently they claimed to be their ideological rival. Congress leaders, including the kin of former Congress CM Karunakaran, A.K. Antony, are now clad in saffron shawl and are proudly saying that they were respected by PM Modi and BJP, the kind of respect they expected and not received when they were in Congress. The LDF and UDF are worried at the growing acceptability of BJP in Keralam, the state till recently used to display ‘no entry’ board to BJP.  Their worry is understandable as the fight is intense and running neck to neck, the possibility of no alliance gaining sufficient number of seats to form the government staring, the very thought of approaching BJP for the government formation or considering BJP for power sharing is giving them sleepless nights.

Thus both LDF and UDF may be regretting for placing BJP into electoral focus with allegation and counter allegation of collusion with BJP but there is no way they can now change the track of campaign as very few hours of campaign is left.  Whatever may be their initial strategy but the ruling LDF and opposition UDF have offered undue publicity to BJP. The Congress alleges that LDF victory in 2021 was a result of collusion with between CPM and BJP. It was that understanding CPM had with BJP which saved them from the gold smuggling case, the Sabarimala temple gold theft case etc. They show the top BJP brass’s low intense criticism on LDF as the evidence for the current collision. The CPM on the other hand alleges Congress joining hands with BJP to dislodge Communists from power in Keralam. They show the kind of weak candidates Congress put up in constituencies to ensure victory to BJP.

Keralam, the state where minorities form near 45% of the population, till now politics were minority centric. Even now the parties are still appeasing them, the Hindu appeasement is forced on the main parties because of the BJP and its high decibel campaign. Congress with IUML on its side is hoping to garner major chunk of Muslim vote. Though the LDF tried its best to appease the Muslim voters, somehow the IUML drifted away and with that some loss of votes from that community. The Christian community is divided basing on their denominations. At least in three districts the results are decided on Christian votes. These votes are divided between three alliances including small chunk going in NDA way. This division of votes made for the first time in Keralam the Hindu vote count.

The change in their stance on Sabarimala temple entry for woman by the ruling CPM is obviously to pacify angry Hindu community. Pinarayi Vijayan government has changed its stand, totally contrary to the earlier stand, and the Supreme Court was requested to review its earlier decision. The SNDP Yogam, the Nair society is given prominence to please Hindu community. Thus the so called secular state of Keralam is now turned into communal vote catching ways and every part is guilty of religion, caste based strategy and campaign focus in the state. Keralam is no more a state with a difference it is as good or as bad like any other state. The freebie culture has entered the state and there is a competitive freebies and social welfare scheme promises from all the three alliances. There is nothing to choose basing on the manifestos. So it is left to the religion and caste factors, and how one manages and pleases them is the decisive factor in determining the winner. With clear division in every social group the election is very closely fought and results will be surely surprising to every party.