Dr. Duggaraju Srinivasa Rao
The buzz in Kerala is when is the change of CM happening? Till the 2024 Lok Sabha election results are out Pinarayi Vijayan, the strong man of CPM, is credited with the back to back assembly elections eulogized as man who captured the rural Kerala in the local body elections for the communists. In that backdrop the LDF was so confident of capturing majority of Lok Sabha seats, but it ended with only one seat, the same number the BJP also one. It is not only the loss of Left which has hit Pinarayi but the more damage to his image was hit by the emphatic victory of BJP in Thrissur, but its overwhelming positive performance across the state with around 16% vote share. With his plan of marginalizing some of the tested CPM leaders in the decision making, over preference of his son in law and his ministerial colleague Mohammad Rias and his daughter Veena’s money making through suspicious activities, and his back door negotiations with the BJP government at Delhi to tide over the central investigating agencies progress in the involvement of people close to his family made him a sitting duck in the state level review meet of CPM. The style of functioning of Pinarayi was questioned in that meet, where the national general secretary of the party Seetaram Yechuri was present. Pinarayi was accused by the CPM seniors of abrasive behavior, rabid tongue, chiding the cadre in public for minor mistakes and brining the family into the party, which is unheard in communist parties earlier, his autocratic way of decision making and many more.
Till recently Pinaryi’s word was final in the party and government but post results he is loner. Pinarayi failed to convince the party through his “election results are not anti-incumbency expression of voter” and “BJP mislead the voter through its nationalistic narrative”. Perhaps the politburo of the CPM has also not bought Pinarayi line and chose to side with the other leaders. There could be more than one angle for that central leadership conclusion. CPM is a party which believes that politburo is supreme and that was evident when Jyoti Basu, then CM of Bengal, was not allowed to take the PM post in late 1990s, despite the political coalition choosing him as prospective PM. After the loss of Bengal and Tripura, the only red citadel left to the Left is Kerala. That being the only state from where party coffers are getting filled, naturally the leader heading Kerala was given flexibility to act devoid of consultation with the party. In fact there were many reports emanating from A.K. Gopalan Bhavan regarding the unhappy politburo and its compelled restraint on Pinarayi. The politburo waiting for a chance to tackle Pinarayi and that chance came after 8 years of his reign in 2024. The latest word from politburo is- “Pinarayi can’t act independently and party consultation, an old method, is to be followed” – in a way fettering him.
As Pinarayi is at his political low he may have to willingly bear the shackles but accepting subjugation is not the character of him. He may wait for his opportunity to strike back but given the political climate in Kerala that time may not come that early. Pinarayi antagonized many numerically powerful communities. Through his ‘appease Muslim’ policy he angered both Hindu and Christian communities. The dissident CPM group accused Pinarayi of practice of ‘pseudo-secularism’ which gave BJP a foothold in Kerala. The Nair and Ezhava communities have shifted to BJP. The Christian clergy lead by Metropolitan of Syrio Catholics through a jibe of ‘kit politics’ at Left and Pinarayi accused the Church heads as “uneducated and uninformed” and that was not taken lightly by Church goers. The political outfit of Muslims, the IUML, accused Pinarayi of following “double edged tactics”. IUML suspect that Pinarayi tried to divide the Muslim society by encouraging another Ulama group against Muslim League.
With so much negativism built for the party, Pinarayi Vijayan now is considered as a burden and he may be tolerated till the Wayanadu Lok Sabha and two other assembly by elections seats in the coming months. Irrespective of the outcome of those by-elections Pinnarayi is sure to be eased out by CPM as they fear loosing the last red bastion as Communist Party gears up its centenary celebration.
(Author is retired professor. The views expressed are personal opinion of the author. He can be reached at duggarajusrinivasarao@gmail.com)
